Will JPMorgan Now Make and Take 'Delivery' of Its Own Silver Shorts?
If a short seller must deliver a commodity, and the commodity is not readily available, there is no better way to buy extra time than to be able to deliver into its own vault. Most of the metal will never leave the vault, and most delivered metal that will leave the vault won't leave right away. Indeed, paperwork tasks of transferring title can consume a few days. Thus, a late delivery may not be noticed if it is to the short seller's own vault if the vault operation staff chooses to remain silent.
Why was JPM awarded a vault license almost overnight, avoiding the lengthy vetting process others must undergo? Why did it happen in the middle of a major COMEX silver delivery month, during a massive worldwide silver short squeeze, at a time when physical silver is in severe shortage? We do not know the answers to these questions. The exchange rules should prohibit proprietary trading divisions, hedge funds and other closely associated or controlled financial institutions, from delivering to vaults owned or controlled by their own family of companies. Yet, no such rules exist.
Does the licensing of a NYMEX/COMEX JPM vault reflect short-seller panic? Paper money can be printed, of course, ad infinitum and endless reams of it can be borrowed from the Fed. The issue is how much paper money is needed to pry sufficient physical silver loose from the hands of its owners. We believe that an equilibrium level of about $52 per troy ounce would be sufficient. Assuming that the holdings of the various ETFs are not the scam that some have claimed, there is a huge potential supply right there.
Large delivery requirements can be met by cashing in on "baskets" of ETF shares for silver. There is also a huge supply of hoarded bars outside of ETFs, waiting for the right price to set them free. If supply problems continue, the price must rise further until sufficient selling occurs. Most owners of ETF shares, as well as holders of real physical silver, are not momentum chasers. They buy low and sell high in a traditional manner. Momentum chasers are irrelevant because they generally have only paper, and no real metal to deliver.
Remember, your bars can be transferred from one licensed facility to another very quickly. If any storage facility imposes a significant delay, that should be publicized, and met with resolute opposition. Neither silver nor other metals must be stored at licensed vault. They certainly need not be left at the first point of delivery. If you intend to use silver, for example, in commerce (such as a jeweler or industrial user might) or if you expect to keep it off the market for 20 years or so as a retirement fund, it is economically more efficient to physically remove the metal.
If anyone has any positive or negative experiences with the newly licensed J.P. Morgan vault, we would be very interested in learning about them.
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