Is Silver the Next Apple?

The following information was put together exclusively for the King World News blog by Kevin Wides, out of Switzerland.  It is a fascinating comparison between the bull move in Apple shares and silver bullion.  Kevin stated, “With everyone talking about Steve Job’s death and the wonderful investment Apple shares have been, a closer look shows how hard it is to catch a trend over the long run. I still believe in the silver story, and one can see what it takes to hold on to long-term positions [throughout an entire bull market].”

Shares of Apple have gone up 70 fold, but in order to capture that move you had to sit through some gut wrenching corrections that tested even the most devout believers.

Apple’ 5 major corrections

1 -82%...

2 -27%...

3–41%.....

4 -43%

5 -56%

See chart below...

Apple shares - 13 years of a bull trend with 5 major sell offs

When you turn to the silver market, if the price of silver were to equal the bull move in Apple (so far), it would have to go up to $300 an ounce.   

You can see the same type of gut wrenching corrections have taken place in silver which are very similar to those moves in shares of Apple.

Silver’s 4 major corrections

1 -36%

2 -38%

3 -61%

4 -47%

See chart below...

Silver price - 9 year bull market and 4 large corrections

Kevin put together the above charts exclusively for KWN readers globally.  Kevin also stated, “Bottom line, you have to suffer the tests of your convictions to catch the major trends.”

The lesson here reminds me of the great quote from Jesse Livermore:

“And right here let me say one thing:  After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this:  It never was my thinking that made the big money for me.  It always was my sitting.  Got that?  My sitting tight!  It is no trick at all to be right on the market.  You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. 

I’ve known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying and selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit.  And their experience invariably matched mine – that is, they made no real money out of it.  Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon.  I found it one of the hardest things to learn.  But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money.”

You have to buy into bull markets as early as possible and hold on to your position during violent gut wrenching corrections.  The very reason I have quoted Livermore so often is that few human beings have the capability to capture the vast majority of an entire bull move.  It takes incredible fortitude and discipline.Some people may be concerned about the volatility in gold and silver and many of them will get shaken out of this bull market.  Somewhere down the road there will be a mania and investors will have to live through it one way or another, either holding positions or watching in despair as the bull market advances without them.

Source: King World News, 18 Oct 2011